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I have been travelling in India from past 4 weeks and will be travelling back to Australia this week. The one very frequent exercise we do at Value Operations is to reflect and measure our goals and achievements we had regarding this trip.  We are under the process of doing that in our last couple of remaining days.

From last twenty and half weeks we continuously scanned market for opportunities and shared with you all the available opportunities to invest in the market.

I thought it’s the time to look at overall performance of all the discussed companies and measure its returns compare to market and update a brief view on them with you.

 

1st July 13

Highest

High %

Lowest

Low %

19th Nov 13

% return

Expensive/Cheap 1st July 13

Nifty 50

5898.85

6317.35

7.09%

5285

-10.41%

6203.35

5.16%

Bajaj Auto

1922.9

2153.9

12.01%

1727.75

-10.15%

2013.8

4.73%

Expensive

Maruti Suzuki

1605.45

1682.55

4.80%

1236.35

-22.99%

1682.55

4.80%

Expensive

Eicher Motors

3464.65

4219.2

21.78%

3050.95

-11.94

4219.2

21.78%

Expensive

Axis bank

1348.8

1348.8

0%

782.85

-41.96

1135.05

-15.85%

Expensive

HDFC Bank

668.75

695.75

4.04%

561.90

-15.98%

660.05

-1.30%

Expensive

JK Bank

1226.20

1303.95

6.34%

1013.6

-17.34%

1244.25

1.47%

Cheap

CUB

54.85

55.10

0.46%

38

-30.72%

47.3

-13.76%

Expensive

Indusind Bk

471.95

510.7

8.21%

337.3

-28.53%

430.7

-8.74%

Expensive

Amaraja

257.30

319.05

24%

217.75

-15.37%

319.05

24%

Expensive

NIIT Tech

276.70

315.7

14.09%

237.85

-14.04%

315.7

14.09%

Cheap

HCL Tech

758.40

1161.15

53.11%

758.40

0%

1102.7

45.40%

Cheap

Mindtree

836.45

1430.9

71.07%

813.05

-2.80%

1430.90

71.07%

Cheap

Persistent System

503.75

828.2

64.41%

482.60

-4.20%

811.30

61.05%

Expensive

Eclerx

750.4

1202.5

60.25%

703.15

-6.30%

1159.6

54.53%

Cheap

Swaraj Engines

493.30

553.65

12.23%

435.90

-11.64%

553.65

12.23%

Expensive

Havells India

745.90

807.40

8.25%

592.40

-20.58%

756.25

1.39%

Expensive

IGL

280.50

308.85

10.11%

251.25

-10.43%

274.40

-2.17%

Expensive

Petronet LNG

127.3

132.25

3.89%

114.95

-9.70%

124.55

-2.16%

Cheap

ONGC

328

328

0%

243.70

-25.70%

277.35

-15.44%

Expensive

Oil India

581.30

581.30

0%

416.45

-28.36%

462.15

-20.50%

Expensive

Cairn India

293.60

335.1

14.13%

286.65

-2.37%

322

9.67%

Cheap

Bajaj Auto:

We picked up this stock from bunch of other two wheeler companies and liked its performance. While talking about this business previously (click here) on our blog, we were expecting its intrinsic value for the year 2014 in range of Rs 1430 –Rs 1675. The consensus earnings expectations have fallen down and today we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 1517 and for 2015 to be Rs 1800.

The price of Bajaj auto did slipped below 2015 expectations for a very short discount during this period.

Maruti Suzuki:

We talked about Maruti Suzuki on our blog earlier (click here) and did mentioned that as per our style of intrinsic values calculations it was trading at premiums. We still expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 708 and for 2015 to be Rs 946. For us it is still expensive proposition to buy.

Eicher Motors:

Earlier too (click here) we mentioned Eicher Motors to be expensive and today also we stick to the same that Royal Enfield is expensive business to buy today. Today, we expect its 2013 intrinsic value to be Rs 1573 and for Dec 2014 to be Rs 2445.

Axis Bank:

Provisions for bad debt and asset quality of Indian banks have been a big talk in the media. A change in managing the monetary policy by recent new governor of RBI have dented the earnings growth what all the market participant were expecting at the start of this year.

Previously we talked about how to analyse banks and shared with you on how to identify good quality banks (click here) on this blog. Today we expect Axis banks 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 1040 and for 2015 to be Rs 1309. There was a big opportunity available to accumulate this business at a very handsome discount in last 20 weeks. We did grab that opportunity and are sitting at good returns by investing in it through our fund.

HDFC Bank:

We call this bank as a “compounding Machine”. These kind of businesses you never get for cheap. When we were talking about it earlier, it was trading at premiums. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 341 and for 2015 to be Rs 466. They are even today very costly.

JK Bank:

We think this is the only private sector bank that is trading at big discounts. It was doing that earlier and is still trading at discount. We expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 2046 and for 2015 to be Rs 2333. We own this business in our portfolio and have made handsome returns by buying them when they were trading to its lows.

CUB:

City union bank is another small bank which is really doing good business. The consensus estimates and its intrinsic values expectation previously was Rs 53 (click here). Today we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 49 and for 2015 to be Rs 62. It is hardly giving any discount to its 2014 expectations but in last 20 weeks when it was trading below Rs 40 was a good opportunity to buy.

Indusind Bank:

A very popular bank in the media today and was trading at premiums when we talked about this bank earlier (click here). It did trade at little discount to its expected 2015 intrinsic values in last 20 weeks. Today we still expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 202 and for 2015 to be Rs 283.

Amaraja Batteries:

This is the company that had performed best in our portfolio in the last 2 years. It is very hard to find this kind of businesses for any discounts. Though, in last 20 weeks, in the month of August this business was trading at little discount to its expected 2015 intrinsic value. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 205 and for 2015 to be Rs 238.

NIIT Tech:

This is another good small software development business which was available at discount when we shared investment ideas with you through this blog (click here). On the consensus expectations, the intrinsic value for 2014 were Rs 314 and for 2015 it was Rs 352. Today we expect its 2014 intrinsic values to be Rs 288 and Rs 317 for 2015.

HCL Technologies:

We made this year lot of money by investing in IT & banking sector. When we shared idea of investing in this business it was trading at little discount (click here). Today we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 1108 and for 2015 to be Rs 1242.

Mindtree:

Another star performer of our portfolio for the last 9 months. We found this business and shared with you another great investment opportunity even before 20 weeks. Today we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 1154 and for 2015 to be Rs 1306. It is expensive to buy today.

Persistent Systems:

Persistent system was expensive when we talked about it and we think it is still expensive. Today we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 432 and for 2015 to be Rs 547.

Eclerx Services:

Another good business that we shared with you when it was trading at discount. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 858 and for 2015 to be Rs 1001.

Swaraj Engines:

Swaraj Engine is another star performer in our portfolio. When we shared idea of investment within it, it was trading at premium. In last 20 weeks we did have opportunity where it was trading at discount to its intrinsic value. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 444 and for 2015 to be Rs 533.

Havells India:

Another great business that we shared with you at the right time. Today we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 406 and for 2015 to be Rs 458.

IGL:

Another great business model that we like and own in our portfolio. Recently when we shared with you, it was trading at premiums. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 230 and for 2015 to be Rs 233.

Petronet LNG:

Petronet LNG is another idea that we shared with you very recently. However, after its quarterly results we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 114 and for 2015 to be Rs 128.

ONGC:

ONGC is another great business to look at. But it is trading at premiums these days. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 251 and for 2015 to be Rs 339.

Oil India:

Another great business to look at and investigate for investments. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 497 and 2015 to be Rs 618.

Cairn India:

Another great business which is evolving as investment grade business. Today, we expect its 2014 intrinsic value to be Rs 605 and for 2015 to be Rs 530. Falling intrinsic values are dangerous to invest with as we believe that prices always follows underlying assets values in the long run.

Most of the businesses have downgraded their earnings expectations for the year 2014. The exception is the IT sector which has upgraded its earnings for the 2014 and also for2015. Most of the businesses discussed above are trading at 2015 and 2016 values. Overall for us it is time to sit tight and look for the opportunity at the right time.

Finally, these are the returns we managed to gain in last 20 weeks for our portfolio from above watchlist.

Company

Returns

Axis Bank

40%

JK Bank

22%

CUB

30%

Amaraja Batteries

28%

NIIT Tech

12%

HCL Tech

40%

Mindtree

65%

Eclerx Services

48%

Swaraj Engines

20%

Did your portfolio performance improved through our insight? Will be looking forward your insight and how your portfolio performed in last 20 weeks. We are open with any ideas you have for us to improve our blog.

This post was contributed by a representative of Value Operations & Services Pty Ltd and may contain general financial advice that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs.